South Florida most vulnerable to hurricanes in October

October is when South Florida's sweltering summer heat gives way to comfortably warm afternoons ? and when this region is most likely to be clobbered by a hurricane.

More hurricanes ? 19 ? have struck here in October than any other month since tropical records started in 1851. Next in line are September with 15 hits and August with 11.

As of early October, the so-called Cape Verde season, when storms form near Africa, starts to shut down. Meanwhile, systems are more apt to pop up in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, not far from our shores.

"This means that systems can form and affect us with relatively short notice," said meteorologist Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service in Miami.

The good news this year: A weak El Ni?o should emerge in time to temper the remainder of the season, experts say. El Ni?o is an atmospheric pattern that creates strong wind shear, inhibiting storm formation.

Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for WSI, a part of The Weather Channel, said historically tropical seasons "often end rather abruptly as El Ni?o advances.

"In fact, no more than three named storms have developed after Sept. 20 during the last four appearances of El Ni?o events," he said.

Just the same, experts say more storms are likely to emerge over the next two months.

During October, wind shear increases and ocean waters cool. But cold fronts descending across the United States can trigger tropical storms over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean.

Because the fronts tend to guide storms in our direction, Florida is frequently is in the line of fire, as evidenced by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, Hurricane Irene in 1999, Hurricane Isbell in 1964, and Hurricane King in 1950.

"Obviously, storms recurve northward, so if you were to get a storm anywhere in the southern Gulf or the Caribbean, it would recurve toward Florida," said Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist.

kkaye@tribune.com or 954-572-2085

Source: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/fl-october-hurricanes-20120926,0,7955008.story?track=rss

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